ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 800 AM PDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...CORRECTED FOR AWIPS BIN NUMBER IN FIRST LINE ABOVE... SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE BEEN 2.5 OR 35 KT AT BOTH 06 AND 12Z AND BANDING IN THE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED SINCE 12Z. THUS ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED AT THIS TIME AS A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THOUGH THE SYSTEM MAY ALREADY BE CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AT 305/8...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE THE SCATTER IN THE VARIOUS POSITION ESTIMATES. DESPITE THE INITIAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEAR TERM...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO. THE RIDGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE VERY STRONG FROM 36 TO 96 HOURS...THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE RIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST TRACK PARALLELING THE MEXICAN COAST AT THOSE TIMES. AT DAY 5...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT A WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL BEND BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEING STEERED BY THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...EXCEPT THE NOGAPS MODEL WHICH LOSES THE SYSTEM AFTER 36 HOURS. DUE TO LOW VERTICAL SHEAR...VERY WARM WATERS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND WELL-ESTABLISHED CONVECTIVE FEATURES...STEADY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR FOR THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS SUGGESTED BY BOTH GFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE. AFTER DAY 3...THE WATER TEMPERATURES DROP AND THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE STABLE... SUGGESTING WEAKENING ON DAYS 4 AND 5. INTERESTS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO LA FORTUNA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/1500Z 13.2N 95.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 29/0000Z 13.6N 97.3W 40 KT 24HR VT 29/1200Z 14.1N 99.1W 50 KT 36HR VT 30/0000Z 14.7N 100.9W 60 KT 48HR VT 30/1200Z 15.9N 102.8W 70 KT 72HR VT 31/1200Z 19.0N 108.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 01/1200Z 21.0N 112.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 02/1200Z 22.0N 115.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC