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Hurricane ILEANA


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006               
0300 UTC FRI AUG 25 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA CLARION   34  4   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 218N 1168W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 218N 1168W 50 82   5(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
 12 218N 1168W 64 39   8(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
 
 24 223N 1178W 34 65  18(83)   2(85)   X(85)   1(86)   X(86)   X(86)
 24 223N 1178W 50 18  30(48)   1(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
 24 223N 1178W 64  3  11(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
 36 226N 1188W 34 18  33(51)   8(59)   2(61)   1(62)   X(62)   X(62)
 36 226N 1188W 50  2  13(15)   4(19)   2(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 36 226N 1188W 64  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 48 228N 1200W 34  5  14(19)   9(28)   5(33)   2(35)   1(36)   X(36)
 48 228N 1200W 50  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 48 228N 1200W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 72 225N 1220W 34  2   3( 5)   3( 8)   2(10)   4(14)   1(15)   X(15)
 72 225N 1220W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 72 225N 1220W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 220N 1245W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 96 220N 1245W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 96 220N 1245W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     70     60      45      35      25      20       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER COBB/KNABB                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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