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Tropical Storm ILEANA


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 26 2006
 
VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ILEANA IS
SEPARATING FROM THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  THE INITIAL POSITION IS
SIMLIAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SINCE VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS REMAINED FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY. AN ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS IS
295/5.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE
SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION.
 
CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM AS ILEANA HAS LOST NEARLY ALL ITS
DEEP CONVECTION.  THE CYCLONE WILL BE CROSSING THE 24C ISOTHERM
TONIGHT AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR STEADY WEAKENING
FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE.  ILEANA SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS
AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/2100Z 22.8N 119.2W    50 KT
 12HR VT     27/0600Z 22.9N 120.5W    40 KT
 24HR VT     27/1800Z 23.1N 121.8W    30 KT
 36HR VT     28/0600Z 23.2N 123.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     28/1800Z 23.2N 124.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BEVEN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC