ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 26 2006 VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ILEANA IS SEPARATING FROM THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS SIMLIAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SINCE VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS REMAINED FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. AN ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS IS 295/5. THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION. CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM AS ILEANA HAS LOST NEARLY ALL ITS DEEP CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE WILL BE CROSSING THE 24C ISOTHERM TONIGHT AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR STEADY WEAKENING FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. ILEANA SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/2100Z 22.8N 119.2W 50 KT 12HR VT 27/0600Z 22.9N 120.5W 40 KT 24HR VT 27/1800Z 23.1N 121.8W 30 KT 36HR VT 28/0600Z 23.2N 123.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 28/1800Z 23.2N 124.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC