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Tropical Storm ILEANA


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 22 2006
 
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS...A RELATIVE WARM SPOT HAS APPEARED WITHIN
THE LARGE CDO FEATURE.  SINCE THIS WARM SPOT IS CLOSE TO THE
ESTIMATED CENTER...THIS COULD BE THE EARLY INDICATION OF EYE
FORMATION. STILL...IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO KNOW FOR SURE IF
THIS IS AN EYE FORMING AND THERE IS NO RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY TO
HELP.  AS A RESULT...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DIVERGED
SOMEWHAT AND ARE CURRENTLY 45 KT FROM TAFB...55 KT FROM SAB AND
AFWA...AND 63 KT USING THE UW CIMSS ADT.  UNDER THE
CIRCUMSTANCES...A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS INTENSITY
ESTIMATES APPEARS BEST AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT. 
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF AN EYE IS INDEED FORMING...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY AND SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS COULD BE LOW.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS
THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER VERY WARM WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT.  BEYOND 72 HOURS...ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER
COOLER WATERS RESULTING IN WEAKENING.  THE NEW FORECAST IS
ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE VARIOUS INTENSITY MODELS. 
 
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/13 AND THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO
THE TRACK FORECAST OR UNDERLYING REASONING. ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO
BE STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO RESULTING IN A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. 
THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN LIE AT THE SOUTHERNMOST SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHILE THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS ARE THE
NORTHERNMOST MODELS.  SINCE THE LATTER MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A
BETTER ANALYSIS OF THE CYCLONE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD
THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...CLOSER TO THE GFDL AND
UKMET SOLUTIONS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
RESULTING IN A MORE WESTWARD MOTION.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/1500Z 14.8N 106.7W    55 KT
 12HR VT     23/0000Z 15.8N 108.4W    65 KT
 24HR VT     23/1200Z 17.1N 110.5W    75 KT
 36HR VT     24/0000Z 18.5N 112.7W    85 KT
 48HR VT     24/1200Z 19.7N 114.7W    90 KT
 72HR VT     25/1200Z 21.6N 117.8W    85 KT
 96HR VT     26/1200Z 22.5N 120.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     27/1200Z 23.0N 122.5W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC