ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 22 2006 DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS...A RELATIVE WARM SPOT HAS APPEARED WITHIN THE LARGE CDO FEATURE. SINCE THIS WARM SPOT IS CLOSE TO THE ESTIMATED CENTER...THIS COULD BE THE EARLY INDICATION OF EYE FORMATION. STILL...IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO KNOW FOR SURE IF THIS IS AN EYE FORMING AND THERE IS NO RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY TO HELP. AS A RESULT...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DIVERGED SOMEWHAT AND ARE CURRENTLY 45 KT FROM TAFB...55 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND 63 KT USING THE UW CIMSS ADT. UNDER THE CIRCUMSTANCES...A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS INTENSITY ESTIMATES APPEARS BEST AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF AN EYE IS INDEED FORMING...THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS COULD BE LOW. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER VERY WARM WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. BEYOND 72 HOURS...ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS RESULTING IN WEAKENING. THE NEW FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE VARIOUS INTENSITY MODELS. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/13 AND THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR UNDERLYING REASONING. ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO RESULTING IN A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN LIE AT THE SOUTHERNMOST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHILE THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS ARE THE NORTHERNMOST MODELS. SINCE THE LATTER MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER ANALYSIS OF THE CYCLONE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...CLOSER TO THE GFDL AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RESULTING IN A MORE WESTWARD MOTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 14.8N 106.7W 55 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 15.8N 108.4W 65 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 17.1N 110.5W 75 KT 36HR VT 24/0000Z 18.5N 112.7W 85 KT 48HR VT 24/1200Z 19.7N 114.7W 90 KT 72HR VT 25/1200Z 21.6N 117.8W 85 KT 96HR VT 26/1200Z 22.5N 120.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 27/1200Z 23.0N 122.5W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC