Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm HECTOR


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 20 2006

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A SHEARED CYCLONE WITH A PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO THE SOUTHWEST OF DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS CONTINUE TO PLUMMET AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT. A RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY
DUE TO COLD WATER... HIGH SHEAR AND STABLE AIR. ALL SIGNS POINT TO
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISSIPATING SOMETIME TOMORROW... AS INDICATED
BY THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS. 

HECTOR IS MOVING BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST ABOUT AT 9
KT... AND SHOULD CONTINUE IN ABOUT THIS FASHION FOR A DAY OR SO.
THEREAFTER A LEFT TURN IS LIKELY DUE TO THE CYCLONE BECOMING MUCH
WEAKER AND BECOMING STEERED BY ONLY LOW-LEVEL RIDGING. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE... STILL
DISCOUNTING THE MODELS THAT KEEP HECTOR AS A POWERFUL SYSTEM DURING
THE PERIOD... AND IS CLOSEST TO THE BAM SHALLOW WHICH OFTEN 
HANDLES THESE TYPES OF WEAKENING EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEMS
EFFECTIVELY.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/2100Z 20.4N 134.2W    50 KT
 12HR VT     21/0600Z 21.1N 135.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     21/1800Z 21.9N 136.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     22/0600Z 22.5N 138.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     22/1800Z 23.0N 139.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     23/1800Z 23.5N 143.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:42 UTC