ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 20 2006 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A SHEARED CYCLONE WITH A PARTIALLY- EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO THE SOUTHWEST OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS CONTINUE TO PLUMMET AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT. A RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY DUE TO COLD WATER... HIGH SHEAR AND STABLE AIR. ALL SIGNS POINT TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISSIPATING SOMETIME TOMORROW... AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS. HECTOR IS MOVING BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST ABOUT AT 9 KT... AND SHOULD CONTINUE IN ABOUT THIS FASHION FOR A DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER A LEFT TURN IS LIKELY DUE TO THE CYCLONE BECOMING MUCH WEAKER AND BECOMING STEERED BY ONLY LOW-LEVEL RIDGING. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE... STILL DISCOUNTING THE MODELS THAT KEEP HECTOR AS A POWERFUL SYSTEM DURING THE PERIOD... AND IS CLOSEST TO THE BAM SHALLOW WHICH OFTEN HANDLES THESE TYPES OF WEAKENING EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEMS EFFECTIVELY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 20.4N 134.2W 50 KT 12HR VT 21/0600Z 21.1N 135.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 21/1800Z 21.9N 136.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 22/0600Z 22.5N 138.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 22/1800Z 23.0N 139.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 23/1800Z 23.5N 143.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:42 UTC