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Tropical Depression GILMA


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082006
800 AM PDT THU AUG 03 2006
 
ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION AROUND GILMA HAS BEEN DIMINISHING OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ONE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT
60 TO 120 NM SW OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND DATA T-NUMBERS ARE
TEMPORARILY A CONSENSUS 1.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB. THIS TYPE OF PULSING
ACTIVITY WAS EXPECTED...AND IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM DEGENERATES INTO REMNANT LOW. 

GILMA HAS ACCELERATED SLIGHTLY WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/7. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SLIGHTLY TO
THE LEFT AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS
CLOSELY FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS... CANADIAN...AND ECMWF
MODELS WHICH ALL DISSIPATE GILMA INTO AN OPEN TROUGH WITHIN 24 TO
48 HOURS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/1500Z 15.7N 109.5W    25 KT
 12HR VT     04/0000Z 16.3N 110.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     04/1200Z 17.2N 112.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:42 UTC