ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082006 800 AM PDT THU AUG 03 2006 ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION AROUND GILMA HAS BEEN DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ONE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 60 TO 120 NM SW OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND DATA T-NUMBERS ARE TEMPORARILY A CONSENSUS 1.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB. THIS TYPE OF PULSING ACTIVITY WAS EXPECTED...AND IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM DEGENERATES INTO REMNANT LOW. GILMA HAS ACCELERATED SLIGHTLY WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/7. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS CLOSELY FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS... CANADIAN...AND ECMWF MODELS WHICH ALL DISSIPATE GILMA INTO AN OPEN TROUGH WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 15.7N 109.5W 25 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 16.3N 110.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 04/1200Z 17.2N 112.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG/PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:42 UTC