Tropical Storm FABIO

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TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072006
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006

THE FINAL VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY SUGGEST THE THE CENTER OF FABIO
IS SOMEWHAT EXPOSED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A BALL OF DEEP
CONVECTION... REQUIRING A SMALL SOUTHWARD RELOCATION TO THE INITIAL
POSITION.   THOUGH THE CYCLONE LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN 6
HOURS AGO...DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 45 KT.  SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT FORECAST TO
CHANGE MUCH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SSTS ONLY SLOWLY
DECREASE.  THEREFORE ONLY A MODEST WEAKENING IS INDICATED FOR THE
NEAR-TERM... WITH FASTER WEAKENING IN THE LONG-TERM AS THE CYCLONE
ENCOUNTERS STRONGER SHEAR AND A MORE STABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT.  
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS BEFORE.. 275/12. A
STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FABIO SHOULD STEER THE
SYSTEM IN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FASHION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THEREAFTER...FABIO IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTWARD AS IT BECOMES
A SHALLOWER SYSTEM MORE INFLUENCED BY THE LOW LAYER EASTERLY FLOW
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE... CLOSE TO THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0300Z 14.7N 128.2W    45 KT
 12HR VT     02/1200Z 14.9N 130.2W    45 KT
 24HR VT     03/0000Z 15.3N 133.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     03/1200Z 15.6N 135.7W    40 KT
 48HR VT     04/0000Z 16.0N 138.5W    40 KT
 72HR VT     05/0000Z 16.0N 144.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     06/0000Z 16.0N 149.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     07/0000Z 16.0N 154.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB
 
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