Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm FABIO


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072006
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006

THE FINAL VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY SUGGEST THE THE CENTER OF FABIO
IS SOMEWHAT EXPOSED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A BALL OF DEEP
CONVECTION... REQUIRING A SMALL SOUTHWARD RELOCATION TO THE INITIAL
POSITION.   THOUGH THE CYCLONE LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN 6
HOURS AGO...DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 45 KT.  SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT FORECAST TO
CHANGE MUCH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SSTS ONLY SLOWLY
DECREASE.  THEREFORE ONLY A MODEST WEAKENING IS INDICATED FOR THE
NEAR-TERM... WITH FASTER WEAKENING IN THE LONG-TERM AS THE CYCLONE
ENCOUNTERS STRONGER SHEAR AND A MORE STABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT.  
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS BEFORE.. 275/12. A
STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FABIO SHOULD STEER THE
SYSTEM IN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FASHION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THEREAFTER...FABIO IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTWARD AS IT BECOMES
A SHALLOWER SYSTEM MORE INFLUENCED BY THE LOW LAYER EASTERLY FLOW
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE... CLOSE TO THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0300Z 14.7N 128.2W    45 KT
 12HR VT     02/1200Z 14.9N 130.2W    45 KT
 24HR VT     03/0000Z 15.3N 133.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     03/1200Z 15.6N 135.7W    40 KT
 48HR VT     04/0000Z 16.0N 138.5W    40 KT
 72HR VT     05/0000Z 16.0N 144.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     06/0000Z 16.0N 149.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     07/0000Z 16.0N 154.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC