ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006 THE FINAL VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY SUGGEST THE THE CENTER OF FABIO IS SOMEWHAT EXPOSED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A BALL OF DEEP CONVECTION... REQUIRING A SMALL SOUTHWARD RELOCATION TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THOUGH THE CYCLONE LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN 6 HOURS AGO...DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 45 KT. SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SSTS ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE. THEREFORE ONLY A MODEST WEAKENING IS INDICATED FOR THE NEAR-TERM... WITH FASTER WEAKENING IN THE LONG-TERM AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS STRONGER SHEAR AND A MORE STABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS BEFORE.. 275/12. A STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FABIO SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM IN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FASHION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...FABIO IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTWARD AS IT BECOMES A SHALLOWER SYSTEM MORE INFLUENCED BY THE LOW LAYER EASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE... CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0300Z 14.7N 128.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 02/1200Z 14.9N 130.2W 45 KT 24HR VT 03/0000Z 15.3N 133.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 03/1200Z 15.6N 135.7W 40 KT 48HR VT 04/0000Z 16.0N 138.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 05/0000Z 16.0N 144.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 06/0000Z 16.0N 149.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 07/0000Z 16.0N 154.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC