Tropical Storm FABIO

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TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072006
800 PM PDT MON JUL 31 2006
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS
TO 45 KT FROM TAFB...35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND 31 KT FROM UW
CIMSS ADT.  ACCORDINGLY...THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM FABIO WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.  FABIO IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WITHIN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREFORE...ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS
SHOWN THROUGH 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOUNTER A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR...DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER ATMOSPHERE...AND
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONTROLS ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE WEAKENING WITH MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS THE
CYCLONE LONGER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. 
 
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/12.   GUIDANCE IS SPLIT INTO TWO
CAMPS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING
THROUGH 48 HOURS THEN TURN THE CYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.
CONVERSELY...THE BAM MODELS SHOW A NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 48 HOUR
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT BEND TOWARD THE WEST THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS AND IS
ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE.  THIS ALSO
REPRESENTS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0300Z 14.5N 123.3W    35 KT
 12HR VT     01/1200Z 14.8N 125.0W    40 KT
 24HR VT     02/0000Z 15.2N 127.3W    45 KT
 36HR VT     02/1200Z 15.8N 129.7W    45 KT
 48HR VT     03/0000Z 16.3N 132.0W    40 KT
 72HR VT     04/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     05/0000Z 16.5N 141.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     06/0000Z 16.5N 146.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
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FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN
 
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