ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006 800 PM PDT MON JUL 31 2006 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS TO 45 KT FROM TAFB...35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND 31 KT FROM UW CIMSS ADT. ACCORDINGLY...THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FABIO WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. FABIO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREFORE...ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN THROUGH 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR...DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER ATMOSPHERE...AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONTROLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE WEAKENING WITH MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS THE CYCLONE LONGER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/12. GUIDANCE IS SPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGH 48 HOURS THEN TURN THE CYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. CONVERSELY...THE BAM MODELS SHOW A NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 48 HOUR WITH ONLY A SLIGHT BEND TOWARD THE WEST THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS AND IS ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE. THIS ALSO REPRESENTS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0300Z 14.5N 123.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 01/1200Z 14.8N 125.0W 40 KT 24HR VT 02/0000Z 15.2N 127.3W 45 KT 36HR VT 02/1200Z 15.8N 129.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 03/0000Z 16.3N 132.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 04/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 05/0000Z 16.5N 141.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 06/0000Z 16.5N 146.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC