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Tropical Storm EMILIA


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006               
1500 UTC TUE JUL 25 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR.                             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 14   3(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34 10   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
LA PAZ         34  7   4(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
LORETO         34  2   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CULICAN        34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 218N 1123W 34 89   5(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
 12 218N 1123W 50 53  11(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
 12 218N 1123W 64  9   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
 24 233N 1140W 34 10  47(57)   6(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)
 24 233N 1140W 50  X  18(18)   3(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 24 233N 1140W 64  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 36 243N 1155W 34  2  14(16)  16(32)   3(35)   1(36)   X(36)   X(36)
 36 243N 1155W 50  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 36 243N 1155W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 252N 1168W 34  X   3( 3)   9(12)   6(18)   3(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 48 252N 1168W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 48 252N 1168W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 258N 1196W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 72 258N 1196W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 72 258N 1196W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     60     50      40      30      25       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC