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Tropical Storm EMILIA


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006               
1500 UTC SAT JUL 22 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   4(15)   1(16)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   3(13)   1(14)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  15(19)  15(34)   4(38)   1(39)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   1(12)   X(12)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)   1(11)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 164N 1055W 34 19  14(33)   2(35)   1(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
 12 164N 1055W 50  4   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 12 164N 1055W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 175N 1070W 34  X  26(26)  14(40)   4(44)   2(46)   1(47)   X(47)
 24 175N 1070W 50  X   7( 7)   3(10)   2(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 24 175N 1070W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 36 183N 1082W 34  X   5( 5)  26(31)  13(44)   5(49)   1(50)   X(50)
 36 183N 1082W 50  X   1( 1)   8( 9)   5(14)   2(16)   X(16)   1(17)
 36 183N 1082W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 48 189N 1094W 34  X   1( 1)  13(14)  21(35)  12(47)   1(48)   1(49)
 48 189N 1094W 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   6(17)   X(17)   1(18)
 48 189N 1094W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
 
 72 204N 1114W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  21(31)   8(39)   1(40)
 72 204N 1114W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   3(13)   X(13)
 72 204N 1114W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
 
 96 223N 1138W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  11(20)   1(21)
 96 223N 1138W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 96 223N 1138W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 245N 1160W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)
120 245N 1160W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
120 245N 1160W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     40     45      50      60      60      50      40
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC