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TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
1500 UTC SAT JUL 22 2006
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 4(15) 1(16)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) 1(14)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 15(34) 4(38) 1(39)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) X(12)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 164N 1055W 34 19 14(33) 2(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
12 164N 1055W 50 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
12 164N 1055W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
24 175N 1070W 34 X 26(26) 14(40) 4(44) 2(46) 1(47) X(47)
24 175N 1070W 50 X 7( 7) 3(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13)
24 175N 1070W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
36 183N 1082W 34 X 5( 5) 26(31) 13(44) 5(49) 1(50) X(50)
36 183N 1082W 50 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) 2(16) X(16) 1(17)
36 183N 1082W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
48 189N 1094W 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 21(35) 12(47) 1(48) 1(49)
48 189N 1094W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 6(17) X(17) 1(18)
48 189N 1094W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
72 204N 1114W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 21(31) 8(39) 1(40)
72 204N 1114W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) X(13)
72 204N 1114W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
96 223N 1138W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 11(20) 1(21)
96 223N 1138W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
96 223N 1138W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
120 245N 1160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9)
120 245N 1160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
120 245N 1160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40 45 50 60 60 50 40
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC