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Tropical Storm EMILIA


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006
 
LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN INDICATING
INTERMITTENT APPEARANCES OF A BANDING EYE FEATURE. CONVECTIVE
BANDING HAS INCREASED AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF
DATA T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65 AND
T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...AND ALSO A 25/2035Z
UW-CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE OF 75 KT AND 975 MB.

THE SHORT TERM MOTION OF EMILIA HAS BEEN 355/12. HOWEVER...TRENDING
THROUGH ALL THE WIGGLES AND WOBBLES OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS YIELDS A
SMOOTHER MOTION OF 345/10 KT...WHICH HAS BEEN USED FOR THIS
ADVISORY. UNFORTUNATELY...EVEN THAT MOTION...IF CONTINUED FOR THE
NEXT 9 HOURS...WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILIA VERY CLOSE TO CABO
SAN LAZARO MEXICO. HOWEVER...WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND FLOW EXPECTED...
THE CURRENT TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO
BAHIA MAGDALENA SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT. THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY BY 12-18 HOURS...AND THEN BE STEERED
MORE WESTWARD BY THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION... AND IS
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.

EMILIA HAS PERHAPS ANOTHER 6-9 HOURS OF POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING AND
IT COULD REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THAT TIME WHILE IT
REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER. HOWEVER...BY 12 HOURS EMILIA
WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-24C SSTS AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
...WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED BY THE 24-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...WHICH SHOWS EXPECTED DISSIPATION OF
EMILIA BY 60 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0300Z 22.9N 111.0W    60 KT
 12HR VT     26/1200Z 24.3N 112.7W    55 KT
 24HR VT     27/0000Z 25.7N 114.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     27/1200Z 26.5N 115.2W    35 KT
 48HR VT     28/0000Z 27.1N 116.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     29/0000Z 27.6N 118.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC