ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006 LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN INDICATING INTERMITTENT APPEARANCES OF A BANDING EYE FEATURE. CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS INCREASED AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DATA T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65 AND T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...AND ALSO A 25/2035Z UW-CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE OF 75 KT AND 975 MB. THE SHORT TERM MOTION OF EMILIA HAS BEEN 355/12. HOWEVER...TRENDING THROUGH ALL THE WIGGLES AND WOBBLES OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS YIELDS A SMOOTHER MOTION OF 345/10 KT...WHICH HAS BEEN USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. UNFORTUNATELY...EVEN THAT MOTION...IF CONTINUED FOR THE NEXT 9 HOURS...WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILIA VERY CLOSE TO CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO. HOWEVER...WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND FLOW EXPECTED... THE CURRENT TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO BAHIA MAGDALENA SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT. THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY BY 12-18 HOURS...AND THEN BE STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION... AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE. EMILIA HAS PERHAPS ANOTHER 6-9 HOURS OF POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING AND IT COULD REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THAT TIME WHILE IT REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER. HOWEVER...BY 12 HOURS EMILIA WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-24C SSTS AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN ...WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED BY THE 24-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...WHICH SHOWS EXPECTED DISSIPATION OF EMILIA BY 60 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 22.9N 111.0W 60 KT 12HR VT 26/1200Z 24.3N 112.7W 55 KT 24HR VT 27/0000Z 25.7N 114.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 27/1200Z 26.5N 115.2W 35 KT 48HR VT 28/0000Z 27.1N 116.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 29/0000Z 27.6N 118.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC