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Tropical Storm EMILIA


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006
800 AM PDT MON JUL 24 2006

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT EMILIA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED. 
IN FACT...SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS ARE DOWN TO T 3.0...45
KT...FROM SAB AND TAFB...WHILE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN
55 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES BECAUSE OF DVORAK CONSTRAINTS. THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 55 KT. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/8 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUSLY ADVISORY...AS
EMILIA CONTINUES TO BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A STRONG
MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED SOON TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS IT REACHES THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL.

EMILIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM WATER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST INDICATES STRENGTHENING...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR EMILIA TO BECOME A
HURRICANE. THEREAFTER...EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND INTO MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND
INDUCE RAPID WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS
SCENARIO AND INDICATES THAT EMILIA WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN
ABOUT 4 DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS
MODEL FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS...BUT IS SIMILAR TO SHIPS
DURING THE WEAKENING PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/1500Z 18.7N 110.1W    55 KT
 12HR VT     25/0000Z 19.2N 111.2W    60 KT
 24HR VT     25/1200Z 20.1N 112.7W    70 KT
 36HR VT     26/0000Z 21.3N 114.5W    65 KT
 48HR VT     26/1200Z 22.4N 116.4W    55 KT
 72HR VT     27/1200Z 24.0N 119.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     28/1200Z 25.0N 122.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC