ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 800 AM PDT MON JUL 24 2006 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT EMILIA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED. IN FACT...SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS ARE DOWN TO T 3.0...45 KT...FROM SAB AND TAFB...WHILE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 55 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES BECAUSE OF DVORAK CONSTRAINTS. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 55 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/8 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUSLY ADVISORY...AS EMILIA CONTINUES TO BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A STRONG MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED SOON TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL. EMILIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM WATER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES STRENGTHENING...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR EMILIA TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THEREAFTER...EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND INTO MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND INDUCE RAPID WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND INDICATES THAT EMILIA WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS...BUT IS SIMILAR TO SHIPS DURING THE WEAKENING PORTION OF THE FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 18.7N 110.1W 55 KT 12HR VT 25/0000Z 19.2N 111.2W 60 KT 24HR VT 25/1200Z 20.1N 112.7W 70 KT 36HR VT 26/0000Z 21.3N 114.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 26/1200Z 22.4N 116.4W 55 KT 72HR VT 27/1200Z 24.0N 119.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 28/1200Z 25.0N 122.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC