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Hurricane DANIEL


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006
 
VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT A LESS IMPRESSIVE EYE
FEATURE THAN 6 HOURS AGO...RAGGED AND NOT QUITE AS WARM.
HOWEVER...EYEWALL TEMPERATURES DECREASED ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE
DVORAK FINAL T AND UW/CIMSS ADT NUMBERS TO 127 KT. BASED ON THE
DVORAK NUMBERS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 125 KT. THIS
MAY BE A SHORT TERM TREND SINCE THE LAST FEW IMAGES INDICATE SOME
WARMING OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. DANIEL
SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM WATER FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE SSTS
BEGIN TO DROP OFF SOME...TO AROUND 25C. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
COOLER THAN 24C ARE NOT EXPECTED SO ONLY A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS
FORECAST...SIMILAR TO THE GFDL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/11...JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK.  DANIEL IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A STRONG
MID-TO-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND IS ANTICIPATED
TO REMAIN WITHIN THE DEEP WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FLOW FOR THE NEXT 36
HOURS. AFTER THAT...THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF A DIFFERENCE IN HOW THE
MODELS HANDLE TWO POSSIBLE KEY FEATURES. THE NOGAPS/GFDL/GFS AND
THE ECMWF ALL INDICATE A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
RIDGE NEAR 140W IN 48 HOURS CREATED BY A COMBINATION OF TWO
SYNOPTIC FEATURES...A RETROGRADING MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG
130W AND A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM ALONG 154W...APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE MODELS CONSEQUENTLY SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION
IN FORWARD SPEED AS DANIEL MOVES INTO THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE. THE
UKMET...ON THE OTHER HAND...DISSIPATES THE TROUGH ALONG 130W AND
SHOWS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
NORTHWEST...PROLONGING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING FLOW...WHICH
PLACES DANIEL JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII IN 5 DAYS. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES SOME WEAKENING IN THE RIDGE WILL
OCCUR...AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT
STILL FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0300Z 14.4N 133.2W   125 KT
 12HR VT     23/1200Z 14.8N 134.5W   115 KT
 24HR VT     24/0000Z 15.4N 136.4W   100 KT
 36HR VT     24/1200Z 15.9N 138.0W    90 KT
 48HR VT     25/0000Z 16.3N 139.3W    80 KT
 72HR VT     26/0000Z 17.0N 141.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     27/0000Z 18.5N 144.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     28/0000Z 20.0N 148.5W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC