ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT A LESS IMPRESSIVE EYE FEATURE THAN 6 HOURS AGO...RAGGED AND NOT QUITE AS WARM. HOWEVER...EYEWALL TEMPERATURES DECREASED ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE DVORAK FINAL T AND UW/CIMSS ADT NUMBERS TO 127 KT. BASED ON THE DVORAK NUMBERS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 125 KT. THIS MAY BE A SHORT TERM TREND SINCE THE LAST FEW IMAGES INDICATE SOME WARMING OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. DANIEL SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM WATER FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE SSTS BEGIN TO DROP OFF SOME...TO AROUND 25C. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN 24C ARE NOT EXPECTED SO ONLY A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST...SIMILAR TO THE GFDL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/11...JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. DANIEL IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A STRONG MID-TO-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN WITHIN THE DEEP WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FLOW FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF A DIFFERENCE IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE TWO POSSIBLE KEY FEATURES. THE NOGAPS/GFDL/GFS AND THE ECMWF ALL INDICATE A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE RIDGE NEAR 140W IN 48 HOURS CREATED BY A COMBINATION OF TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES...A RETROGRADING MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 130W AND A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM ALONG 154W...APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE MODELS CONSEQUENTLY SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED AS DANIEL MOVES INTO THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE. THE UKMET...ON THE OTHER HAND...DISSIPATES THE TROUGH ALONG 130W AND SHOWS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST...PROLONGING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING FLOW...WHICH PLACES DANIEL JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII IN 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES SOME WEAKENING IN THE RIDGE WILL OCCUR...AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT STILL FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 14.4N 133.2W 125 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 14.8N 134.5W 115 KT 24HR VT 24/0000Z 15.4N 136.4W 100 KT 36HR VT 24/1200Z 15.9N 138.0W 90 KT 48HR VT 25/0000Z 16.3N 139.3W 80 KT 72HR VT 26/0000Z 17.0N 141.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 27/0000Z 18.5N 144.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 28/0000Z 20.0N 148.5W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC