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Tropical Storm DANIEL


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006
200 PM PDT MON JUL 17 2006
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS SHOWS THAT CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED AND BECOME MORE CENTRALIZED ABOUT THE ESTIMATED CENTER.
ADDITIONALLY...BANDING FEATURES ARE MORE PRONOUNCED AND COMPRISED
OF DEEPER CONVECTION. BASED ON THIS...AND AN ADT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 41 KT FROM UW CIMSS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS INCREASED TO 40 KT.  
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STILL WESTWARD BUT A LITTLE SLOWER AT
270/09.  THE PRIMARY STEERING FOR DANIEL WILL BE A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS CURRENTLY BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH DANIEL WHICH SHOULD
PRODUCE A GENERAL WESTWARD COURSE THROUGH 72 HOURS. IN FACT...A
COUPLE OF THE MODELS SHOW A MOTION SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST IN
THE 24 TO 48 HOUR TIME FRAME INDICATING A RATHER STRONG RIDGE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A DUE WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS AND
IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.   BEYOND 72
HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEAKNESS WILL DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE
ALLOWING DANIEL TO TURN MORE POLEWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH AT DAYS 4 AND 5. 
 
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH DANIEL APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING.
THIS ALONG WITH NEGLIGIBLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND A WARM OCEAN SHOULD
PRODUCE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STRENGTHENING. THE GFS DOES SHOW
SLIGHT DRYING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS BEYOND 24 HOURS BUT I
WOULD RATHER SEE THE PRESENCE OF VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THIS TO BE A
FACTOR. THERE IS SEEMINGLY NO ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS TO RESTRICT
THIS CYCLONE...AND THIS PHILOSOPHY IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WHICH TAKES DANIEL TO A STRONG CAT TWO HURRICANE IN 3
DAYS.  THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF 70 KT FROM
SHIPS...96 KT FROM THE GFDL...AND 117 KT FROM THE FSU SUPER
ENSEMBLE...ALL OF WHICH PEAK THE INTENSITY AT OR NEAR 72 HOURS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/2100Z 12.4N 112.8W    40 KT
 12HR VT     18/0600Z 12.4N 114.1W    50 KT
 24HR VT     18/1800Z 12.4N 116.0W    60 KT
 36HR VT     19/0600Z 12.4N 117.8W    70 KT
 48HR VT     19/1800Z 12.4N 119.1W    80 KT
 72HR VT     20/1800Z 12.7N 122.0W    95 KT
 96HR VT     21/1800Z 13.2N 124.7W    95 KT
120HR VT     22/1800Z 14.0N 128.0W    90 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC