ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 200 PM PDT MON JUL 17 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS SHOWS THAT CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND BECOME MORE CENTRALIZED ABOUT THE ESTIMATED CENTER. ADDITIONALLY...BANDING FEATURES ARE MORE PRONOUNCED AND COMPRISED OF DEEPER CONVECTION. BASED ON THIS...AND AN ADT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 41 KT FROM UW CIMSS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STILL WESTWARD BUT A LITTLE SLOWER AT 270/09. THE PRIMARY STEERING FOR DANIEL WILL BE A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS CURRENTLY BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH DANIEL WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A GENERAL WESTWARD COURSE THROUGH 72 HOURS. IN FACT...A COUPLE OF THE MODELS SHOW A MOTION SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST IN THE 24 TO 48 HOUR TIME FRAME INDICATING A RATHER STRONG RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A DUE WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS AND IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BEYOND 72 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEAKNESS WILL DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE ALLOWING DANIEL TO TURN MORE POLEWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH AT DAYS 4 AND 5. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH DANIEL APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING. THIS ALONG WITH NEGLIGIBLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND A WARM OCEAN SHOULD PRODUCE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STRENGTHENING. THE GFS DOES SHOW SLIGHT DRYING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS BEYOND 24 HOURS BUT I WOULD RATHER SEE THE PRESENCE OF VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THIS TO BE A FACTOR. THERE IS SEEMINGLY NO ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS TO RESTRICT THIS CYCLONE...AND THIS PHILOSOPHY IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH TAKES DANIEL TO A STRONG CAT TWO HURRICANE IN 3 DAYS. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF 70 KT FROM SHIPS...96 KT FROM THE GFDL...AND 117 KT FROM THE FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE...ALL OF WHICH PEAK THE INTENSITY AT OR NEAR 72 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 12.4N 112.8W 40 KT 12HR VT 18/0600Z 12.4N 114.1W 50 KT 24HR VT 18/1800Z 12.4N 116.0W 60 KT 36HR VT 19/0600Z 12.4N 117.8W 70 KT 48HR VT 19/1800Z 12.4N 119.1W 80 KT 72HR VT 20/1800Z 12.7N 122.0W 95 KT 96HR VT 21/1800Z 13.2N 124.7W 95 KT 120HR VT 22/1800Z 14.0N 128.0W 90 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC