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Tropical Storm CARLOTTA


ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5         
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006               
0300 UTC THU JUL 13 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.                             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA SOCORRO   34 14  43(57)  11(68)   2(70)   1(71)   X(71)   1(72)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  1  14(15)   9(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   4( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  1   7( 8)  27(35)  23(58)  12(70)   1(71)   X(71)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   8( 8)  16(24)  10(34)   1(35)   X(35)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   7(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 169N 1096W 34 96   2(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
 12 169N 1096W 50 62  17(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)
 12 169N 1096W 64 28  15(43)   1(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
 
 24 175N 1113W 34 33  53(86)   7(93)   X(93)   1(94)   X(94)   X(94)
 24 175N 1113W 50  2  47(49)  12(61)   1(62)   1(63)   X(63)   X(63)
 24 175N 1113W 64  X  23(23)  11(34)   1(35)   1(36)   X(36)   X(36)
 
 36 177N 1129W 34  4  39(43)  31(74)   9(83)   3(86)   X(86)   X(86)
 36 177N 1129W 50  X   9( 9)  30(39)  10(49)   2(51)   X(51)   X(51)
 36 177N 1129W 64  X   2( 2)  17(19)   6(25)   2(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
 48 178N 1145W 34  1   9(10)  31(41)  21(62)  11(73)   1(74)   X(74)
 48 178N 1145W 50  X   1( 1)  12(13)  17(30)   8(38)   X(38)   X(38)
 48 178N 1145W 64  X   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)   5(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
 
 72 180N 1175W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)  27(43)   6(49)   X(49)
 72 180N 1175W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)   3(19)   X(19)
 72 180N 1175W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
 
 96 190N 1205W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   9(22)   1(23)
 96 190N 1205W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
 96 190N 1205W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
120 200N 1230W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)
120 200N 1230W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
120 200N 1230W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     70     80      85      85      75      50      30
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC