ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL
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TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006
0300 UTC THU JUL 13 2006
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLA SOCORRO 34 14 43(57) 11(68) 2(70) 1(71) X(71) 1(72)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 1 14(15) 9(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ISLA CLARION 34 1 7( 8) 27(35) 23(58) 12(70) 1(71) X(71)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) 10(34) 1(35) X(35)
ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 7(18) X(18) X(18)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 169N 1096W 34 96 2(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
12 169N 1096W 50 62 17(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79)
12 169N 1096W 64 28 15(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
24 175N 1113W 34 33 53(86) 7(93) X(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94)
24 175N 1113W 50 2 47(49) 12(61) 1(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63)
24 175N 1113W 64 X 23(23) 11(34) 1(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36)
36 177N 1129W 34 4 39(43) 31(74) 9(83) 3(86) X(86) X(86)
36 177N 1129W 50 X 9( 9) 30(39) 10(49) 2(51) X(51) X(51)
36 177N 1129W 64 X 2( 2) 17(19) 6(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27)
48 178N 1145W 34 1 9(10) 31(41) 21(62) 11(73) 1(74) X(74)
48 178N 1145W 50 X 1( 1) 12(13) 17(30) 8(38) X(38) X(38)
48 178N 1145W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19)
72 180N 1175W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 27(43) 6(49) X(49)
72 180N 1175W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 3(19) X(19)
72 180N 1175W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
96 190N 1205W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 9(22) 1(23)
96 190N 1205W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)
96 190N 1205W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
120 200N 1230W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8)
120 200N 1230W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
120 200N 1230W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 70 80 85 85 75 50 30
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC