Hurricane CARLOTTA

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HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006
 
THE NORTHERN HALF OF CARLOTTA'S CIRCULATION IS OVER COOL WATERS AND
DEEP CONVECTION IS RATHER LIMITED TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CYCLONE. T-NUMBERS ARE COMING DOWN AS FAST AS DVORAK RULES ALLOW
AND THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT)...LATEST VERSION...FROM THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOWS AVERAGED NUMBERS AROUND 3.2 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 65
KNOTS AND THIS APPEARS TO BE CONSERVATIVE SINCE THE SYSTEM MAY BE
BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY AS WE SPEAK. CARLOTTA'S ENTIRE
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 12 TO 24
HOURS...SO WEAKENING IS INDICATED...AND THIS COULD OCCUR FASTER
THAN FORECAST.       

INITIAL MOTION IS 285/8. BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AND BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...A TURN 
MORE TO THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/1500Z 18.4N 113.7W    65 KT
 12HR VT     15/0000Z 18.5N 115.0W    60 KT
 24HR VT     15/1200Z 18.8N 117.2W    55 KT
 36HR VT     16/0000Z 19.0N 119.2W    45 KT
 48HR VT     16/1200Z 19.0N 121.5W    35 KT
 72HR VT     17/1200Z 19.5N 125.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     18/1200Z 20.0N 127.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     19/1200Z 20.0N 129.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
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FORECASTER AVILA
 
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