ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006 THE NORTHERN HALF OF CARLOTTA'S CIRCULATION IS OVER COOL WATERS AND DEEP CONVECTION IS RATHER LIMITED TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. T-NUMBERS ARE COMING DOWN AS FAST AS DVORAK RULES ALLOW AND THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT)...LATEST VERSION...FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOWS AVERAGED NUMBERS AROUND 3.2 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 65 KNOTS AND THIS APPEARS TO BE CONSERVATIVE SINCE THE SYSTEM MAY BE BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY AS WE SPEAK. CARLOTTA'S ENTIRE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS...SO WEAKENING IS INDICATED...AND THIS COULD OCCUR FASTER THAN FORECAST. INITIAL MOTION IS 285/8. BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...A TURN MORE TO THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 18.4N 113.7W 65 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 18.5N 115.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 18.8N 117.2W 55 KT 36HR VT 16/0000Z 19.0N 119.2W 45 KT 48HR VT 16/1200Z 19.0N 121.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 17/1200Z 19.5N 125.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 18/1200Z 20.0N 127.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 19/1200Z 20.0N 129.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC