Hurricane CARLOTTA

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HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006
200 PM PDT THU JUL 13 2006
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS MADE A COME BACK...JUST A LITTLE...AND DEEP
CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER AS THE SHEAR
EFFECT FROM BUD'S OUTFLOW DIMINISHES. IN ADDITION...THERE HAS BEEN
A BANDING TYPE EYE TRYING TO FORM AND THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS.  ON THIS BASIN...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND IN FACT...MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HURRICANE ON A STEADY STATE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS AND SHOWS A WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE.  

CARLOTTA IS PASSING JUST SOUTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND. IT WOULD HAVE BEEN
VERY USEFUL TO HAVE AN OBSERVATION FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC
WEATHER STATION THERE. CARLOTTA IS MOVING TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST
ABOUT 12 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A PERSISTENT STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...AS THE CYCLONE WEAKNESS AND
BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM OVER COOLER WATERS...IT SHOULD BE STEERED
MORE TO THE WEST BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS TRACK IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL...AND NOT WITH THE GFS WHICH
DISSIPATES CARLOTTA QUICKLY AND FORMS A NEW CYCLONE TO THE EAST.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/2100Z 17.8N 111.3W    75 KT
 12HR VT     14/0600Z 18.4N 113.1W    70 KT
 24HR VT     14/1800Z 18.5N 115.0W    65 KT
 36HR VT     15/0600Z 18.6N 116.7W    60 KT
 48HR VT     15/1800Z 18.5N 118.5W    55 KT
 72HR VT     16/1800Z 19.0N 122.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     17/1800Z 19.5N 124.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     18/1800Z 20.0N 127.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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