ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 200 PM PDT THU JUL 13 2006 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS MADE A COME BACK...JUST A LITTLE...AND DEEP CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER AS THE SHEAR EFFECT FROM BUD'S OUTFLOW DIMINISHES. IN ADDITION...THERE HAS BEEN A BANDING TYPE EYE TRYING TO FORM AND THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS. ON THIS BASIN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND IN FACT...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HURRICANE ON A STEADY STATE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND SHOWS A WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE. CARLOTTA IS PASSING JUST SOUTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND. IT WOULD HAVE BEEN VERY USEFUL TO HAVE AN OBSERVATION FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC WEATHER STATION THERE. CARLOTTA IS MOVING TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 12 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A PERSISTENT STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...AS THE CYCLONE WEAKNESS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM OVER COOLER WATERS...IT SHOULD BE STEERED MORE TO THE WEST BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL...AND NOT WITH THE GFS WHICH DISSIPATES CARLOTTA QUICKLY AND FORMS A NEW CYCLONE TO THE EAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2100Z 17.8N 111.3W 75 KT 12HR VT 14/0600Z 18.4N 113.1W 70 KT 24HR VT 14/1800Z 18.5N 115.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 15/0600Z 18.6N 116.7W 60 KT 48HR VT 15/1800Z 18.5N 118.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 16/1800Z 19.0N 122.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 17/1800Z 19.5N 124.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 18/1800Z 20.0N 127.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC