Hurricane CARLOTTA

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HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006
800 AM PDT THU JUL 13 2006
 
CARLOTTA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED AND IN
FACT...IT HAS DETERIORATED A LITTLE BIT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE LATEST AMSU DATA WHICH SHOWS THE
CENTER OF THE CYCLONE ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION.
SINCE THE T-NUMBERS HAVE ALSO DECREASED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ADJUSTED DOWN TO 70 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE OUTFLOW
FROM BUD IS AFFECTING CARLOTTA AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE.  ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...A WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER...
PRIMARILY WHEN THE CYCLONE REACHES RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS. THIS
IS ALSO THE SOLUTION OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 290 DEGREES
AT 12 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS GENERAL STEERING PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS. THEREFORE...CARLOTTA
SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. BY THEN...CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO BE A
SHALLOW SYSTEM OVER COOL WATERS STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/1500Z 17.3N 110.4W    70 KT
 12HR VT     14/0000Z 17.7N 112.3W    70 KT
 24HR VT     14/1200Z 18.0N 114.7W    65 KT
 36HR VT     15/0000Z 18.0N 116.5W    60 KT
 48HR VT     15/1200Z 18.2N 118.0W    55 KT
 72HR VT     16/1200Z 18.5N 121.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     17/1200Z 19.0N 123.5W    40 KT
120HR VT     18/1200Z 20.0N 126.5W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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