ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 800 AM PDT THU JUL 13 2006 CARLOTTA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED AND IN FACT...IT HAS DETERIORATED A LITTLE BIT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE LATEST AMSU DATA WHICH SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. SINCE THE T-NUMBERS HAVE ALSO DECREASED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWN TO 70 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE OUTFLOW FROM BUD IS AFFECTING CARLOTTA AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...A WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER... PRIMARILY WHEN THE CYCLONE REACHES RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS. THIS IS ALSO THE SOLUTION OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 290 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS GENERAL STEERING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS. THEREFORE...CARLOTTA SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. BY THEN...CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHALLOW SYSTEM OVER COOL WATERS STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/1500Z 17.3N 110.4W 70 KT 12HR VT 14/0000Z 17.7N 112.3W 70 KT 24HR VT 14/1200Z 18.0N 114.7W 65 KT 36HR VT 15/0000Z 18.0N 116.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 15/1200Z 18.2N 118.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 16/1200Z 18.5N 121.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 17/1200Z 19.0N 123.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 18/1200Z 20.0N 126.5W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC