Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm CARLOTTA


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006
800 PM PDT WED JUL 12 2006
 
CARLOTTA IS APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE CYCLONE CONTINUES
TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT FEATURES
CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C DEVELOPING INSIDE A LARGE AND
WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND PATTERN.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB...AND 45 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET TO 60 KT AS A COMPROMISE BASED ON A BLEND OF
THESES ESTIMATES AND THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL CONVECTION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/15.  CARLOTTA IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO...WITH HURRICANE BUD ABOUT 650 N MI WEST OF CARLOTTA AND A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 30N130W.  WHILE THE PATTERN IS REASONABLY
STRAIGHT FORWARD...THE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS NOT.  BUD IS FORECAST
TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THREE DAYS OR SO...WHILE
THE LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH DURING THAT TIME.  OVERALL...THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD.  HOWEVER...THE GFS AND
GFDL FORECAST TWO MORE TROPICAL CYCLONES TO FORM EAST OF
CARLOTTA...WITH CARLOTTA SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED AS A RESULT.  THE
UKMET SHEARS CARLOTTA APART...WHILE THE NOGAPS MOVES IT GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE RIDGE.  AT THIS TIME... THERE ARE NO
OBVIOUS SIGNS OF THE NEW TROPICAL CYCLONES THE GFS AND GFDL ARE
FORECASTING.  THEREFORE...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK MOST RESEMBLES
THAT OF THE NOGAPS...WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 24 HR
FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.  THE NEW TRACK IS
NORTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE CURRENT
POSITION AND MOTION.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE FORECAST TRACK
CALLS FOR CARLOTTA TO DECELERATE SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AND THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY IT COULD MOVE FASTER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

CARLOTTA HAS GOOD TO EXCELLENT CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS
EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST...WHERE IT IS FAIR.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNTIL IT REACHES COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN ABOUT 36 HR.  AFTER THAT..IT SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN IN A LIGHT-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0300Z 16.2N 107.9W    60 KT
 12HR VT     13/1200Z 16.9N 109.6W    70 KT
 24HR VT     14/0000Z 17.5N 111.3W    80 KT
 36HR VT     14/1200Z 17.7N 112.9W    85 KT
 48HR VT     15/0000Z 17.8N 114.5W    85 KT
 72HR VT     16/0000Z 18.0N 117.5W    75 KT
 96HR VT     17/0000Z 19.0N 120.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     18/0000Z 20.0N 123.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC