Tropical Storm CARLOTTA

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TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006
800 PM PDT WED JUL 12 2006
 
CARLOTTA IS APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE CYCLONE CONTINUES
TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT FEATURES
CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C DEVELOPING INSIDE A LARGE AND
WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND PATTERN.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB...AND 45 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET TO 60 KT AS A COMPROMISE BASED ON A BLEND OF
THESES ESTIMATES AND THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL CONVECTION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/15.  CARLOTTA IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO...WITH HURRICANE BUD ABOUT 650 N MI WEST OF CARLOTTA AND A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 30N130W.  WHILE THE PATTERN IS REASONABLY
STRAIGHT FORWARD...THE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS NOT.  BUD IS FORECAST
TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THREE DAYS OR SO...WHILE
THE LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH DURING THAT TIME.  OVERALL...THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD.  HOWEVER...THE GFS AND
GFDL FORECAST TWO MORE TROPICAL CYCLONES TO FORM EAST OF
CARLOTTA...WITH CARLOTTA SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED AS A RESULT.  THE
UKMET SHEARS CARLOTTA APART...WHILE THE NOGAPS MOVES IT GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE RIDGE.  AT THIS TIME... THERE ARE NO
OBVIOUS SIGNS OF THE NEW TROPICAL CYCLONES THE GFS AND GFDL ARE
FORECASTING.  THEREFORE...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK MOST RESEMBLES
THAT OF THE NOGAPS...WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 24 HR
FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.  THE NEW TRACK IS
NORTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE CURRENT
POSITION AND MOTION.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE FORECAST TRACK
CALLS FOR CARLOTTA TO DECELERATE SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AND THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY IT COULD MOVE FASTER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

CARLOTTA HAS GOOD TO EXCELLENT CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS
EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST...WHERE IT IS FAIR.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNTIL IT REACHES COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN ABOUT 36 HR.  AFTER THAT..IT SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN IN A LIGHT-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0300Z 16.2N 107.9W    60 KT
 12HR VT     13/1200Z 16.9N 109.6W    70 KT
 24HR VT     14/0000Z 17.5N 111.3W    80 KT
 36HR VT     14/1200Z 17.7N 112.9W    85 KT
 48HR VT     15/0000Z 17.8N 114.5W    85 KT
 72HR VT     16/0000Z 18.0N 117.5W    75 KT
 96HR VT     17/0000Z 19.0N 120.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     18/0000Z 20.0N 123.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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