ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 800 PM PDT WED JUL 12 2006 CARLOTTA IS APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT FEATURES CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C DEVELOPING INSIDE A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND PATTERN. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB...AND 45 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 60 KT AS A COMPROMISE BASED ON A BLEND OF THESES ESTIMATES AND THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/15. CARLOTTA IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH HURRICANE BUD ABOUT 650 N MI WEST OF CARLOTTA AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 30N130W. WHILE THE PATTERN IS REASONABLY STRAIGHT FORWARD...THE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS NOT. BUD IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THREE DAYS OR SO...WHILE THE LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH DURING THAT TIME. OVERALL...THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND GFDL FORECAST TWO MORE TROPICAL CYCLONES TO FORM EAST OF CARLOTTA...WITH CARLOTTA SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED AS A RESULT. THE UKMET SHEARS CARLOTTA APART...WHILE THE NOGAPS MOVES IT GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE RIDGE. AT THIS TIME... THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS SIGNS OF THE NEW TROPICAL CYCLONES THE GFS AND GFDL ARE FORECASTING. THEREFORE...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK MOST RESEMBLES THAT OF THE NOGAPS...WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 24 HR FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. THE NEW TRACK IS NORTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR CARLOTTA TO DECELERATE SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY IT COULD MOVE FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. CARLOTTA HAS GOOD TO EXCELLENT CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST...WHERE IT IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNTIL IT REACHES COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN ABOUT 36 HR. AFTER THAT..IT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN A LIGHT-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0300Z 16.2N 107.9W 60 KT 12HR VT 13/1200Z 16.9N 109.6W 70 KT 24HR VT 14/0000Z 17.5N 111.3W 80 KT 36HR VT 14/1200Z 17.7N 112.9W 85 KT 48HR VT 15/0000Z 17.8N 114.5W 85 KT 72HR VT 16/0000Z 18.0N 117.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 17/0000Z 19.0N 120.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 18/0000Z 20.0N 123.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC