Tropical Depression BUD
ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 15 2006
BUD CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN OVER 22-23 DEG C WATERS. THERE
ARE STILL SOME SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION...BUT NONE OF THE CONVECTION IS VERY DEEP. THE HIGHEST
UNCONTAMINATED WIND SPEEDS FROM A 0320 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS WERE
30-35 KT. BUD HAS PROBABLY WEAKENED A LITTLE FURTHER SINCE THE
TIME OF THOSE OBSERVATIONS...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 30
KT....WHICH DOWNGRADES THE SYSTEM TO DEPRESSION STATUS. THE
CYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER COOL WATERS AND THEREFORE IT IS FORECAST
TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN A DAY OR SO. NONE OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A CLOSED CIRCULATION AFTER 48 HOURS SO THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE OR BECOME
AN OPEN WAVE BY HOUR 72.
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...280/13...IS SIMILAR TO THAT USED IN THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. NOT MUCH CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE NHC
FORECAST ON THIS ADVISORY. A MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK IS ANTICIPATED
AS BUD...OR ITS REMNANT...CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/0900Z 20.4N 131.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 20.6N 133.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 20.9N 136.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 16/1800Z 21.0N 138.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 17/0600Z 21.0N 141.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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