ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 15 2006 BUD CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN OVER 22-23 DEG C WATERS. THERE ARE STILL SOME SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT NONE OF THE CONVECTION IS VERY DEEP. THE HIGHEST UNCONTAMINATED WIND SPEEDS FROM A 0320 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS WERE 30-35 KT. BUD HAS PROBABLY WEAKENED A LITTLE FURTHER SINCE THE TIME OF THOSE OBSERVATIONS...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT....WHICH DOWNGRADES THE SYSTEM TO DEPRESSION STATUS. THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER COOL WATERS AND THEREFORE IT IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN A DAY OR SO. NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A CLOSED CIRCULATION AFTER 48 HOURS SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE OR BECOME AN OPEN WAVE BY HOUR 72. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...280/13...IS SIMILAR TO THAT USED IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. NOT MUCH CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE NHC FORECAST ON THIS ADVISORY. A MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK IS ANTICIPATED AS BUD...OR ITS REMNANT...CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 20.4N 131.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 20.6N 133.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 20.9N 136.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 16/1800Z 21.0N 138.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 17/0600Z 21.0N 141.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC