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Tropical Depression BUD


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 15 2006

BUD CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN OVER 22-23 DEG C WATERS.  THERE
ARE STILL SOME SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION...BUT NONE OF THE CONVECTION IS VERY DEEP.  THE HIGHEST
UNCONTAMINATED WIND SPEEDS FROM A 0320 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS WERE
30-35 KT.  BUD HAS PROBABLY WEAKENED A LITTLE FURTHER SINCE THE
TIME OF THOSE OBSERVATIONS...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 30
KT....WHICH DOWNGRADES THE SYSTEM TO DEPRESSION STATUS.  THE
CYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER COOL WATERS AND THEREFORE IT IS FORECAST
TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN A DAY OR SO.  NONE OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A CLOSED CIRCULATION AFTER 48 HOURS SO THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE OR BECOME
AN OPEN WAVE BY HOUR 72.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...280/13...IS SIMILAR TO THAT USED IN THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  NOT MUCH CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE NHC
FORECAST ON THIS ADVISORY.  A MAINLY  WESTWARD TRACK IS ANTICIPATED
AS BUD...OR ITS REMNANT...CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0900Z 20.4N 131.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 20.6N 133.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 20.9N 136.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 21.0N 138.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     17/0600Z 21.0N 141.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC