Tropical Storm BUD

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TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 11 2006

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT BUD IS EXHIBITING A
CLASSIC BURSTING TYPE PATTERN...OFTEN SYMPTOMATIC OF A SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB HAVE COME IN
AT T2.5...35 KTS...SO NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY HAS BEEN MADE ON THIS
PACKAGE. THE POSITION ESTIMATES FROM 12Z WERE CLOSER THAN SEEN
PREVIOUSLY...AND SUGGESTS A WESTERLY ADJUSTMENT FROM SIX HOURS AGO.
THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO THE AMBIGUITY IN THE 06Z CENTER POSITION
AND IS NOT INTERPRETED AS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK. THE RECENT
MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285...WEST-NORTHWEST...AT 8 KTS.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN NORTH OF BUD FEATURES AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR THE
COAST OF SOUTHWEST CANADA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO
NORTH AMERICA WHICH THEN ALLOWS THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
EXPAND FARTHER WESTWARD LATE THIS WEEK. THE DEPICTION OF THE
CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM...PARTICULARLY IN THE UKMET...IS
COMPLICATED BY INTERACTIONS WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL AND SHALLOW ONE
TO ITS WEST IN THE ITCZ. THE SMALL WESTERN CIRCULATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT BUD MUCH AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS THE
LARGER/DOMINANT CIRCULATION...SO LITTLE WEIGHT IS GIVEN TO THE
UKMET AND CONU FORECASTS. THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
ACAPULCO IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR IN BUDS TRACK
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...THOUGH AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO GIVING THE
DISTURBANCE MORE WEIGHT IN THE TRACK FORECAST WOULD SLOW DOWN BUD
MORE THAN IS CURRENTLY PROGGED. BUD SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING
WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL IT ENTERS COOLER WATERS BECOMING STEERED
INCREASINGLY BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE. THE CURRENT
TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. 

A SMALL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NORTHEAST OF BUD IS PRODUCING WEAK
NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM...WHICH APPARENTLY IS RETARDING ITS
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. EVEN THOUGH MODELS DO NOT INITIALIZE THIS
SMALL SCALE FEATURE WELL...OR AT ALL...IT SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME
LESS INFLUENTIAL WITH TIME. THIS IS OBSERVED IN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE
WHICH SHOWS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASING TO MORE FAVORABLE
LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS MODEL ALSO INDICATES THAT THE 200MB
TEMP WILL BECOME WARMER WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE THERMODYNAMIC
COMPONENT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE LACKING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE STABLE.  THIS ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT BUD
IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HRS SHOULD
LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/1500Z 13.9N 112.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     12/0000Z 14.3N 113.8W    40 KT
 24HR VT     12/1200Z 14.8N 115.3W    45 KT
 36HR VT     13/0000Z 15.5N 117.1W    50 KT
 48HR VT     13/1200Z 16.0N 119.2W    55 KT
 72HR VT     14/1200Z 16.9N 122.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     15/1200Z 17.2N 126.2W    35 KT
120HR VT     16/1200Z 17.0N 129.8W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROTH/KIMBERLAIN
 
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