ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 11 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT BUD IS EXHIBITING A CLASSIC BURSTING TYPE PATTERN...OFTEN SYMPTOMATIC OF A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB HAVE COME IN AT T2.5...35 KTS...SO NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY HAS BEEN MADE ON THIS PACKAGE. THE POSITION ESTIMATES FROM 12Z WERE CLOSER THAN SEEN PREVIOUSLY...AND SUGGESTS A WESTERLY ADJUSTMENT FROM SIX HOURS AGO. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO THE AMBIGUITY IN THE 06Z CENTER POSITION AND IS NOT INTERPRETED AS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK. THE RECENT MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285...WEST-NORTHWEST...AT 8 KTS. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN NORTH OF BUD FEATURES AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST CANADA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO NORTH AMERICA WHICH THEN ALLOWS THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXPAND FARTHER WESTWARD LATE THIS WEEK. THE DEPICTION OF THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM...PARTICULARLY IN THE UKMET...IS COMPLICATED BY INTERACTIONS WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL AND SHALLOW ONE TO ITS WEST IN THE ITCZ. THE SMALL WESTERN CIRCULATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT BUD MUCH AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS THE LARGER/DOMINANT CIRCULATION...SO LITTLE WEIGHT IS GIVEN TO THE UKMET AND CONU FORECASTS. THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR IN BUDS TRACK FORECAST AT THIS TIME...THOUGH AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO GIVING THE DISTURBANCE MORE WEIGHT IN THE TRACK FORECAST WOULD SLOW DOWN BUD MORE THAN IS CURRENTLY PROGGED. BUD SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL IT ENTERS COOLER WATERS BECOMING STEERED INCREASINGLY BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE. THE CURRENT TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NORTHEAST OF BUD IS PRODUCING WEAK NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM...WHICH APPARENTLY IS RETARDING ITS DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. EVEN THOUGH MODELS DO NOT INITIALIZE THIS SMALL SCALE FEATURE WELL...OR AT ALL...IT SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS INFLUENTIAL WITH TIME. THIS IS OBSERVED IN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASING TO MORE FAVORABLE LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS MODEL ALSO INDICATES THAT THE 200MB TEMP WILL BECOME WARMER WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE THERMODYNAMIC COMPONENT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE LACKING AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE STABLE. THIS ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT BUD IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HRS SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 13.9N 112.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 12/0000Z 14.3N 113.8W 40 KT 24HR VT 12/1200Z 14.8N 115.3W 45 KT 36HR VT 13/0000Z 15.5N 117.1W 50 KT 48HR VT 13/1200Z 16.0N 119.2W 55 KT 72HR VT 14/1200Z 16.9N 122.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 15/1200Z 17.2N 126.2W 35 KT 120HR VT 16/1200Z 17.0N 129.8W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER ROTH/KIMBERLAIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC