Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression TWO-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022006
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 04 2006
 
VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF
THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION AS A RESULT OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. A SMALL
BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED VERY NEAR THE CENTER DURING
HE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THAT IS THE ONLY THING THAT HAS KEPT
THIS SYSTEM ALIVE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY WAS DECREASE
TO 25 KT BASED ON CONSENSUS T1.5 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 090/04 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS
LOCATED NORTH OF THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...AND THE
RECENT FLAREUP OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALLOWED THE CENTER TO BE
DRAGGED EAST-NORTHEAST TO EASTWARD BY THIS FLOW REGIME. NOGAPS IS
THE ONLY GLOBAL MODEL THAT HINTS AT TAKING THE WEAKENING SYSTEM
INLAND NEAR ACAPULCO IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...WHILE THE REST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO DIE-ON-THE-VINE JUST OFFSHORE.
EVEN THE GFDL MODEL KEEPS TD-2E OFFSHORE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE THREE BAM MODELS...HOWEVER...TAKE THE DEPRESSION INLAND
BY 24 HOURS...ALBEIT PROBABLY TOO FAR UP THE COAST FROM ITS CURRENT
POSITION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...ONLY A LITTLE FASTER...AND TAKES THE CYCLONE TO NEAR THE
COAST IN 24 HOURS...AND THEN DISSIPATES IT SINCE SUCH A WEAK SYSTEM
WOULD LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTACT OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
OF SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO.
 
TIME IS RUNNING OUT FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR AND
IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH TROPICAL STORM
STATUS BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE MEXICAN COAST. HOWEVER...IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE RECENT BURST OF CONVECTION...IF IT
PERSISTS...COULD INCREASE THE WINDS BACK TO 30 KT.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/1500Z 16.8N 101.7W    25 KT
 12HR VT     05/0000Z 16.9N 101.2W    25 KT
 24HR VT     05/1200Z 17.0N 100.4W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC