Tropical Depression TWO-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022006
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 04 2006
 
VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF
THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION AS A RESULT OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. A SMALL
BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED VERY NEAR THE CENTER DURING
HE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THAT IS THE ONLY THING THAT HAS KEPT
THIS SYSTEM ALIVE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY WAS DECREASE
TO 25 KT BASED ON CONSENSUS T1.5 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 090/04 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS
LOCATED NORTH OF THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...AND THE
RECENT FLAREUP OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALLOWED THE CENTER TO BE
DRAGGED EAST-NORTHEAST TO EASTWARD BY THIS FLOW REGIME. NOGAPS IS
THE ONLY GLOBAL MODEL THAT HINTS AT TAKING THE WEAKENING SYSTEM
INLAND NEAR ACAPULCO IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...WHILE THE REST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO DIE-ON-THE-VINE JUST OFFSHORE.
EVEN THE GFDL MODEL KEEPS TD-2E OFFSHORE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE THREE BAM MODELS...HOWEVER...TAKE THE DEPRESSION INLAND
BY 24 HOURS...ALBEIT PROBABLY TOO FAR UP THE COAST FROM ITS CURRENT
POSITION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...ONLY A LITTLE FASTER...AND TAKES THE CYCLONE TO NEAR THE
COAST IN 24 HOURS...AND THEN DISSIPATES IT SINCE SUCH A WEAK SYSTEM
WOULD LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTACT OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
OF SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO.
 
TIME IS RUNNING OUT FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR AND
IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH TROPICAL STORM
STATUS BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE MEXICAN COAST. HOWEVER...IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE RECENT BURST OF CONVECTION...IF IT
PERSISTS...COULD INCREASE THE WINDS BACK TO 30 KT.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/1500Z 16.8N 101.7W    25 KT
 12HR VT     05/0000Z 16.9N 101.2W    25 KT
 24HR VT     05/1200Z 17.0N 100.4W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
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