ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006 800 AM PDT SUN JUN 04 2006 VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION AS A RESULT OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. A SMALL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED VERY NEAR THE CENTER DURING HE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THAT IS THE ONLY THING THAT HAS KEPT THIS SYSTEM ALIVE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY WAS DECREASE TO 25 KT BASED ON CONSENSUS T1.5 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 090/04 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...AND THE RECENT FLAREUP OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALLOWED THE CENTER TO BE DRAGGED EAST-NORTHEAST TO EASTWARD BY THIS FLOW REGIME. NOGAPS IS THE ONLY GLOBAL MODEL THAT HINTS AT TAKING THE WEAKENING SYSTEM INLAND NEAR ACAPULCO IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...WHILE THE REST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO DIE-ON-THE-VINE JUST OFFSHORE. EVEN THE GFDL MODEL KEEPS TD-2E OFFSHORE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE THREE BAM MODELS...HOWEVER...TAKE THE DEPRESSION INLAND BY 24 HOURS...ALBEIT PROBABLY TOO FAR UP THE COAST FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ONLY A LITTLE FASTER...AND TAKES THE CYCLONE TO NEAR THE COAST IN 24 HOURS...AND THEN DISSIPATES IT SINCE SUCH A WEAK SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTACT OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO. TIME IS RUNNING OUT FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR AND IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE MEXICAN COAST. HOWEVER...IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE RECENT BURST OF CONVECTION...IF IT PERSISTS...COULD INCREASE THE WINDS BACK TO 30 KT. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 16.8N 101.7W 25 KT 12HR VT 05/0000Z 16.9N 101.2W 25 KT 24HR VT 05/1200Z 17.0N 100.4W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC