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Tropical Storm CHRIS


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006               
2100 UTC WED AUG 02 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   4(12)
ORLANDO FL     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   5(14)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   4(16)
FT PIERCE FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)   5(20)
W PALM BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  14(20)   6(26)
MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)
MIAMI FL       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  16(21)   8(29)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   4(12)
MARATHON FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  14(18)  10(28)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)
KEY WEST FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)   8(23)
MARCO ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)
MARCO ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   6(19)
FT MYERS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   7(17)
VENICE FL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   5(12)
TAMPA FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BELIZE         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  11(18)   3(21)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)
GRAND BAHAMA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)  13(29)   4(33)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   2(13)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)  14(34)   4(38)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   8(15)   2(17)
ANDROS         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  28(34)   9(43)   2(45)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   7(21)   1(22)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  26(35)   6(41)   1(42)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   4(16)   1(17)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)  20(27)  25(52)   3(55)   1(56)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  16(24)   2(26)   X(26)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   4( 4)  20(24)  23(47)  12(59)   1(60)   X(60)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   8( 8)  14(22)   6(28)   1(29)   X(29)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   8(16)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  14(17)   9(26)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)
HAVANA         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   8(21)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
ISLE OF PINES  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  17(22)   6(28)
CIENFUEGOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)
CIENFUEGOS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)  14(30)   3(33)
CAMAGUEY       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   1(11)
CAMAGUEY       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  17(22)   5(27)   1(28)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   5(15)
GRAND CAYMAN   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
GRAND CAYMAN   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)   2(14)
MONTEGO BAY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)   2(12)
KINGSTON       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   8(12)   2(14)   1(15)
LES CAYES      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   8(16)   2(18)   X(18)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   3( 3)  14(17)  13(30)   7(37)   1(38)   X(38)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   4(13)   X(13)   X(13)
PUERTO PLATA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  1   2( 3)   7(10)   4(14)   3(17)   X(17)   1(18)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PONCE          34  1   4( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)
 
SAN JUAN       34  2   5( 7)   3(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  3   3( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 204N  656W 34 63  24(87)   1(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
 12 204N  656W 50 30  16(46)   1(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
 12 204N  656W 64  3   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
 24 210N  674W 34  4  57(61)  13(74)   2(76)   1(77)   X(77)   X(77)
 24 210N  674W 50  1  27(28)  11(39)   1(40)   1(41)   X(41)   X(41)
 24 210N  674W 64  X   8( 8)   4(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
 36 213N  692W 34  1  17(18)  36(54)  11(65)   4(69)   X(69)   X(69)
 36 213N  692W 50  X   5( 5)  22(27)   7(34)   2(36)   X(36)   X(36)
 36 213N  692W 64  X   1( 1)   9(10)   3(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
 48 217N  714W 34  X   3( 3)  20(23)  22(45)  13(58)   1(59)   X(59)
 48 217N  714W 50  X   X( X)   6( 6)  15(21)   6(27)   2(29)   X(29)
 48 217N  714W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   4(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
 
 72 225N  755W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  28(37)   8(45)   2(47)
 72 225N  755W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   5(20)   1(21)
 72 225N  755W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)
 
 
 96 235N  800W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  16(25)   7(32)
 96 235N  800W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   4(13)
 96 235N  800W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
 
120 245N  845W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  11(21)
120 245N  845W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
120 245N  845W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     55     60      65      65      70      70      70
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:35 UTC