ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 2100 UTC WED AUG 02 2006 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 5(14) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 4(16) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 5(20) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 6(26) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 8(29) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 10(28) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 8(23) MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 6(19) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BELIZE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) 3(21) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 13(29) 4(33) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 2(13) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 14(34) 4(38) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) 2(17) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 28(34) 9(43) 2(45) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 7(21) 1(22) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 26(35) 6(41) 1(42) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16) 1(17) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) MAYAGUANA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 20(27) 25(52) 3(55) 1(56) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 16(24) 2(26) X(26) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) X(12) GRAND TURK 34 X 4( 4) 20(24) 23(47) 12(59) 1(60) X(60) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) 6(28) 1(29) X(29) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 9(26) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 8(21) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 6(28) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 14(30) 3(33) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 17(22) 5(27) 1(28) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 5(15) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 2(14) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 2(12) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 2(14) 1(15) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 8(16) 2(18) X(18) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) 1(10) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 3( 3) 14(17) 13(30) 7(37) 1(38) X(38) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SANTO DOMINGO 34 1 2( 3) 7(10) 4(14) 3(17) X(17) 1(18) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PONCE 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 1(10) SAN JUAN 34 2 5( 7) 3(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SAINT THOMAS 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT CROIX 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT MAARTEN 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 204N 656W 34 63 24(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) 12 204N 656W 50 30 16(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) 12 204N 656W 64 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 24 210N 674W 34 4 57(61) 13(74) 2(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) 24 210N 674W 50 1 27(28) 11(39) 1(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) 24 210N 674W 64 X 8( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 36 213N 692W 34 1 17(18) 36(54) 11(65) 4(69) X(69) X(69) 36 213N 692W 50 X 5( 5) 22(27) 7(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) 36 213N 692W 64 X 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) 48 217N 714W 34 X 3( 3) 20(23) 22(45) 13(58) 1(59) X(59) 48 217N 714W 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 6(27) 2(29) X(29) 48 217N 714W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) 72 225N 755W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 28(37) 8(45) 2(47) 72 225N 755W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 5(20) 1(21) 72 225N 755W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) 96 235N 800W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 16(25) 7(32) 96 235N 800W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) 96 235N 800W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 120 245N 845W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 11(21) 120 245N 845W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 120 245N 845W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 55 60 65 65 70 70 70 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:35 UTC