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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU OCT 20 2005
 
A 20/1332Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED A BROAD SURFACE CIRCULATION
WITH NO DISTINCT LOW-LEVEL CENTER... AND SURFACE WINDS OF ONLY 25
KT. VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON ALSO CONFIRMS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
WIND FIELD HAS CONTINUED TO BROADEN AND BECOME ILL-DEFINED... WHILE
CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED.
AS SUCH... TD-16E IS QUICKLY DEGENERATING INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE
REMNANT LOW... AND THIS WILL BE FINAL ADVISORY... PART DEUX... ON
THIS SYSTEM.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS IS 285/08. THE REMANT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THE REMAINDER OF ITS
EXISTENCE... WHICH MAY COME TO A DEMISE SOONER THAN WHAT IS
INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE ITCZ.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
AND THE SHALLOW BAM. HOWEVER... THIS SYSTEM MAY NOT EVEN BE AN
IDENTIFIABLE ENTITY BY 48 HOURS AS A RESULT OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR NOTED IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE. THESE ADVERSE
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVENT OR AT LEAST INHIBIT THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/2100Z 12.8N 119.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 12HR VT     21/0600Z 13.0N 120.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     21/1800Z 13.2N 121.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     22/0600Z 13.4N 122.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     22/1800Z 13.5N 123.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     23/1800Z 13.5N 124.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     24/1800Z 13.5N 125.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING REM LOW
120HR VT     25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 20-Oct-2005 20:25:23 UTC