ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU OCT 20 2005 A 20/1332Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED A BROAD SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH NO DISTINCT LOW-LEVEL CENTER... AND SURFACE WINDS OF ONLY 25 KT. VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON ALSO CONFIRMS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD HAS CONTINUED TO BROADEN AND BECOME ILL-DEFINED... WHILE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED. AS SUCH... TD-16E IS QUICKLY DEGENERATING INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW... AND THIS WILL BE FINAL ADVISORY... PART DEUX... ON THIS SYSTEM. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS IS 285/08. THE REMANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THE REMAINDER OF ITS EXISTENCE... WHICH MAY COME TO A DEMISE SOONER THAN WHAT IS INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE ITCZ. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE SHALLOW BAM. HOWEVER... THIS SYSTEM MAY NOT EVEN BE AN IDENTIFIABLE ENTITY BY 48 HOURS AS A RESULT OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE. THESE ADVERSE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVENT OR AT LEAST INHIBIT THE REDEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 12.8N 119.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 21/0600Z 13.0N 120.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 21/1800Z 13.2N 121.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 22/0600Z 13.4N 122.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 22/1800Z 13.5N 123.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 23/1800Z 13.5N 124.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 24/1800Z 13.5N 125.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING REM LOW 120HR VT 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 20-Oct-2005 20:25:23 UTC