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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED OCT 19 2005
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING AND IS
DIFFICULT TO FIND ON THE FINAL VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY.
IT IS TEMPTING TO POSITION THE CENTER IN AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL SWIRL
BUT IT IS BELIEVED THAT THIS SWIRL IS ROTATING INSIDE THE LARGER
CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE. THIS IDEA IS PARTIALLY SUPPORTED BY A
TRMM MICROWAVE PASS A FEW HOURS AGO BUT THE TRMM PASS WAS FAR FROM
CONCLUSIVE.  WHEREVER THE EXACT POSITION... THE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF 16-E ARE WEAKENING RAPIDLY WITH NO
CONVECTION WITHIN AT LEAST 75 NM OF THE CENTER.  T-NUMBERS ARE
FALLING FROM SAB AND TAFB AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO
25 KT.

THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN A BIT OF AN ENIGMA BY NOT BEING ABLE TO
MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF TIME. THE
MOST LIKELY CULPRIT IS DRY AIR SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR PICTURES...
PROBABLY SUPRESSING CONVECTION DESPITE MODEST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND WARM SSTS. SHIPS CONTINUES TO FORECAST AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
HUMIDITY WHICH COULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO REACH STORM INTENSITY
IN A DAY OR TWO WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEREAFTER. GIVEN THE
DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE TONIGHT.. IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE IF
SHIPS WERE INCORRECT AND THE CYCLONE BECAME A REMNANT LOW IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 270/9. THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST. A WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
STEER THE CYCLONE A LITTLE NORTH OF WEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AT
EXTENDED RANGES...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WEAKEN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
RIDGE...ALLOWING A GENERAL NORTHWEST MOTION. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NEAR THE
NUMERICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  


FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0300Z 12.4N 115.9W    25 KT
 12HR VT     20/1200Z 12.5N 117.3W    25 KT
 24HR VT     21/0000Z 12.9N 119.0W    30 KT
 36HR VT     21/1200Z 13.2N 120.0W    35 KT
 48HR VT     22/0000Z 13.5N 121.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     23/0000Z 14.5N 122.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     24/0000Z 15.0N 122.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     25/0000Z 15.5N 123.5W    35 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Thursday, 20-Oct-2005 02:55:26 UTC