ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT WED OCT 19 2005 THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING AND IS DIFFICULT TO FIND ON THE FINAL VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY. IT IS TEMPTING TO POSITION THE CENTER IN AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL SWIRL BUT IT IS BELIEVED THAT THIS SWIRL IS ROTATING INSIDE THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE. THIS IDEA IS PARTIALLY SUPPORTED BY A TRMM MICROWAVE PASS A FEW HOURS AGO BUT THE TRMM PASS WAS FAR FROM CONCLUSIVE. WHEREVER THE EXACT POSITION... THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF 16-E ARE WEAKENING RAPIDLY WITH NO CONVECTION WITHIN AT LEAST 75 NM OF THE CENTER. T-NUMBERS ARE FALLING FROM SAB AND TAFB AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN A BIT OF AN ENIGMA BY NOT BEING ABLE TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF TIME. THE MOST LIKELY CULPRIT IS DRY AIR SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR PICTURES... PROBABLY SUPRESSING CONVECTION DESPITE MODEST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SSTS. SHIPS CONTINUES TO FORECAST AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL HUMIDITY WHICH COULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO REACH STORM INTENSITY IN A DAY OR TWO WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEREAFTER. GIVEN THE DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE TONIGHT.. IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE IF SHIPS WERE INCORRECT AND THE CYCLONE BECAME A REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 270/9. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST. A WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE CYCLONE A LITTLE NORTH OF WEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AT EXTENDED RANGES...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WEAKEN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE...ALLOWING A GENERAL NORTHWEST MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NEAR THE NUMERICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 12.4N 115.9W 25 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 12.5N 117.3W 25 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 12.9N 119.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 13.2N 120.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 22/0000Z 13.5N 121.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 23/0000Z 14.5N 122.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 24/0000Z 15.0N 122.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 25/0000Z 15.5N 123.5W 35 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 20-Oct-2005 02:55:26 UTC