Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON OCT 17 2005
 
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS STRIPPED AWAY ALL THE
DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER... DESPITE THE LACK OF CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER... DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS
T2.0/30 KT FROM ALL 3 AGENCIES. GIVEN THE VERY TIGHT SWIRL NOTED IN
NIGHTTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY... THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
BE HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATE IS 270/07. TD-16E REMAINS EMBEDDED IN
A FAIRLY DEEP EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
MOVING IN A WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER... THE VERTICAL SHEAR VECTOR IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST... SO ANY BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION
THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN SOME NORTHWARD JUMPS OR
WOBBLES IN THE TRACK.

THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 15 KT BY 36
HOURS... WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR INTENSIFICATION SINCE THE
CYCLONE WILL BE OVER 27.5C TO 28C SSTS. HOWEVER... THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO DECREASE FROM THE CURRENT 38 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO AROUND 20 PERCENT BY 48 HOURS. THIS EXTREMELY
DRY ENVIRONMENT MAY NOT ALLOW CONVECTION TO PERSIST OR EVEN
REDEVELOP NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BEYOND 24 HOURS.... WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN THE SYSTEM DEGENERATING INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMANT LOW.

FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0900Z 12.0N 105.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     17/1800Z 12.0N 106.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     18/0600Z 12.0N 108.0W    30 KT
 36HR VT     18/1800Z 11.7N 109.5W    30 KT
 48HR VT     19/0600Z 11.5N 111.5W    35 KT
 72HR VT     20/0600Z 11.5N 114.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     21/0600Z 11.5N 118.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     22/0600Z 12.5N 121.5W    35 KT
 
 
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