ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON OCT 17 2005 MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS STRIPPED AWAY ALL THE DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER... DESPITE THE LACK OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER... DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T2.0/30 KT FROM ALL 3 AGENCIES. GIVEN THE VERY TIGHT SWIRL NOTED IN NIGHTTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY... THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATE IS 270/07. TD-16E REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A FAIRLY DEEP EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING IN A WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER... THE VERTICAL SHEAR VECTOR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST... SO ANY BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN SOME NORTHWARD JUMPS OR WOBBLES IN THE TRACK. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 15 KT BY 36 HOURS... WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR INTENSIFICATION SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER 27.5C TO 28C SSTS. HOWEVER... THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO DECREASE FROM THE CURRENT 38 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO AROUND 20 PERCENT BY 48 HOURS. THIS EXTREMELY DRY ENVIRONMENT MAY NOT ALLOW CONVECTION TO PERSIST OR EVEN REDEVELOP NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BEYOND 24 HOURS.... WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THE SYSTEM DEGENERATING INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMANT LOW. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0900Z 12.0N 105.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 17/1800Z 12.0N 106.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 18/0600Z 12.0N 108.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 18/1800Z 11.7N 109.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 19/0600Z 11.5N 111.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 20/0600Z 11.5N 114.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 21/0600Z 11.5N 118.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 22/0600Z 12.5N 121.5W 35 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 17-Oct-2005 09:40:23 UTC